Rays hope the Price is right in Arlington

Baseball Betting Lines

07/04/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Still trying to work out some kinks, the Tampa Bay's phenom lefty David Price will take the hill this evening against the hard- hitting Texas Rangers in the second contest of a three-game stint.

Price, a playoff hero for the Rays last season, has been inconsistent since being called into the rotation, and is currently 2-2 and has a 3.93 earned run average.

However, the last time the hard-throwing southpaw took the hill, he limited Florida to just one run on two hits in 6 1/3 innings of duty. Price did have some control issues (five walks), but also struck out four batters.

This will be the first career start for Price against the Rangers.

As for Texas, they will send one of their own young prospects to the mound in Derek Holland. Holland is not as touted as Mr. Price, and his numbers should indicate why, as the southpaw has racked up a pathetic 1-5 ledger with an equally poor 6.20 earned run average.

Holland, who has worked as a reliever and as a starter, has been surprisingly bad at home, and in seven appearances in Arlington he has posted a weak 1-4 mark with a 9.00 earned run average.

This will be Holland's first-ever start against Tampa Bay.

On Friday, Hank Blalock belted a two-run homer and Tommy Hunter pitched 5 1/3 strong innings to collect his first win in the majors on his 23rd birthday, as the Rangers downed the Rays, 3-1.

Hunter (1-1) gave up one run on three hits with five strikeouts and three walks to collect his first win in his sixth start in the big leagues. The University of Alabama product is taking the place of Matt Harrison, who was put on the disabled list last week with biceps inflammation, in the Texas rotation. Frank Francisco retired the side in order in the ninth to pick up his 13th save.

"Tommy was real good tonight. He kept them off balance and he had all of his pitches working. He did a great job," Rangers manager Ron Washington said about Hunter.

Marlon Byrd had an RBI double for the Rangers, who has won three in a row after a three-game skid. Texas had just five hits in the contest.

Scott Kazmir (4-5) allowed three runs -- one earned -- on five hits with six strikeouts in a five-inning start for Tampa Bay, which has lost two straight after a seven-game winning streak.

B. J. Upton stroked an RBI single for the Rays, who had just three hits in the game.

"I think were on the right course. We have been winning lately, playing well, and hitting well. We have lost the last two, but before that we were fine. We feel that we are on our way right now," Rays outfielder Carl Crawford said.

This weekend's series is the first meeting of the season between these teams. The Rays won six of nine matchups with Texas a year ago, including four of six tilts held in Arlington.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.